You Don’t Need Magic to Succeed

There are thousands of books and videos on how “positive thinking” can create success, or how “visualizing” your goals will make them come true. Is there a “secret” to this? If you just believe hard enough, will the universe re-arrange itself to make you happy? Let’s explore some misconceptions about “winning.”

Too Much of a Good Thing

The idea that something can hold us back is a valid one: if we don’t believe we can succeed, we probably won’t. Negative thinking and defeatism can definitely cripple us. But once these impediments are swept away, and we are operating at full capacity, that’s about all there is to it. The rest is up to us. Here are some examples:

• If your tires are under-inflated, your car’s mileage will suffer. Pumping them up to 100psi won’t suddenly get you 100mpg.
• Taking aspirin can make your headache go away; taking more aspirin won’t make you euphoric.
• Buying good shoes will enable you to run faster; spending thousands on shoes won’t enable you to fly.
• Lack of sleep can reduce your mental capacity; sleeping twenty hours a day won’t make you a genius.
• Balloons aren’t defying gravity; it is the heavier air falling that enables the buoyancy. in a vacuum, the balloon would fall, too.

The mistake here is understandable; we all want an advantage. The truth is, once an impediment is removed, it can seem like magic, but more of that same “magic” won’t make more of a difference. Find what is holding you back, and get rid of it, then get back to work.

Copying the Wrong Thing

The operating principle here is that if we emulate successful behavior, we too will succeed. While this is true in some ways, such as in hard work and not giving up, other factors can be misleading. This is a fallacy based on mixing up causation and correlation. Causation means a factor actually controlled the outcome, while correlation means certain factors were simply associated with an outcome. We mix these up a lot in our lives, and some people (politicians, for example) try to create a “causal” relationship where none exists. This has led to everything from bad investments to genocide.

• Copying Donald Trump’s hair won’t make you a billionaire.
• Interviewing lottery and casino winners won’t make you more likely to win.
• Re-writing hit songs, or trying to re-create your past successes won’t particularly lead to future glory.
• Studies show wine drinkers have longer life-spans. What the studies missed was that wine drinkers are statistically wealthier, and thus have better nutrition and health care.
• Movie star Lana Turner was discovered at an L.A. soda shop. While I’m sure many other aspiring actresses waited there after that to be discovered, none were. That sort of thing only happens once.

In general, every successful person has a completely different story. In general, we tend to assign causality to elements that either had no bearing on the outcome, or that would only work once. There are only a few things that most successful people have in common, and that pass a logical test.

More is More

Just like playing the lottery, entering more often increases your chances. (however, in the lottery, your chances are still miniscule.) This means being a perfectionist and holding back your work until you think it is “ready” will work against you. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do your best and dig deep for ideas, but waiting for “the one” doesn’t work.

• Be ready when opportunity arrives; have a body of work to present.
• Perfection is overrated. Do high-quality work, but don’t be so critical that you have no output.
• Don’t base your self-worth on the success of your work; many famous people were panned by critics. Keep going.
• Even acknowledged geniuses have put out less-than-brilliant work from time to time. It’s a numbers game, and nobody is perfect. Get your work out there.

The Real Magic

If you haven’t yet achieved your dreams, it may not be that you didn’t believe hard enough, or that you didn’t follow the rules set forth in those ancient mystical scrolls. It may be simply that you haven’t waited long enough. The only real consistent factor among all “winners” is that they were still in the game when the opportunity arrived. Talent, hard work and opportunity all have to come together, and that can take a while.

• Our success depends on hard work. We can do this, as long as we don’t become discouraged, or go off on a tangent.
• Talent is built-in. While we need it, the most we can do is develop it to the best of our ability.
• Some of our success depends on the actions of others; while we like to think we can control this, the only person we have control over is ourself.
• Everything takes longer than we expected; our best strategy is to stay in the game until our chance comes.